Open-source disease surveillance uses publicly accessible outbreak reporting systems, health authority bulletins, and structured epidemiological datasets to detect, verify, and map emerging infectious disease events before official declarations. The primary identifier is a pattern break: a cluster of unexplained cases, an anomalous mortality spike, or a geographic concentration that diverges from baseline. Cross-referencing multiple surveillance feeds increases confidence and reveals suppression attempts.
The method applies when detecting cluster signals before official outbreak declarations, verifying or challenging government figures against independent surveillance data, mapping geographic spread against transport data, corroborating local media reports with structured epidemiological records, identifying reporting gaps or unusual silences in national health communications, or estimating case undercounting by comparing hospitalisation data with official tallies. A single ProMED alert is Alleged until corroborated. Each signal, individually, is ambiguous. The pattern, corroborated across at least two independent B-grade surveillance sources, is not.
MED-002 sets out the methodology for detecting, verifying, and documenting disease outbreaks using open data to evidentiary standard.
Eight workflow steps, six tooling sources, six false-positive checks, six chain-of-custody requirements.
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01
Required Tools
Six platforms covering ProMED, WHO Disease Outbreak News, HealthMap, Nextstrain, and GISAID.
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02
OPSEC
Neutral research identity, archive-on-retrieval, data restriction awareness, and two-source minimum before publishing.
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03
Workflow
Eight steps from baseline establishment through ProMED monitoring, genomic data, gap identification, and confidence grading.
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04
False Positives
Seasonal baseline confusion, aggregation lag, lab confirmation delays, and social media amplification.
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05
Chain of Custody
ProMED archive number, WHO page hash, Nextstrain build version, bulletin PDFs, and raw case table preservation.
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06
Key Queries
Seven operator references across ProMED, WHO DON, HealthMap, Nextstrain, GISAID, and ECDC EpiData.
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Download the card.
A PDF version of MED-002 is available below for Signal subscribers.
The rest of this card is for Signal subscribers.
What remains: the step sequence, the tool list, the false-positive checks and the chain-of-custody note. Signal is €90 a year, or €9 a month. Students, €49 a year.
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